2 year olds at Churchill 11-1-2009 posted by Johnny Matheis
Each horseplayer has to have an edge, which is a secret only he uses. If other people use it, then he gets underlays and not only does he become a loser, but so do the people who steal his picks. In other words, if Joe picks the 3 horse and bets 5 to win, and Jenny decides to do the same, and she tells Fran and Bill, who each tell two friends, and before long Joe's 5 dollars is represented by 300 dollars, since at least one of those friends is an idiot who bets big money, and there are those at the track who simply bet what they see money bet on, and they can easily turn a 28-1 into a 12-1. Joe's available profit turns from 56 dollars (58.00 payoff) to 24.00 (26.00 payoff). He has to hit this twice as often. He plays it because if he wins one time in 30 he comes out ahead. Now one time in 30 puts him behind, because his own friends cut their own throats just to cut his. That's what it amounts to.
But as a blogger, I have to live with that. Just remember that only idiots bet more than 10 to win on a horse, (and yes, even I can be an idiot), because the more you bet, the more chance you have to rob yourself of your own payoff. Figure that 20 dollars, on an average day, will bring your payoff down at least 20 cents on 2 dollars, so you already cut your own throat out of two dollars.
So remember this and keep your bets low, and only play when the odds are okay.
Now, for a big secret that even I forget sometimes, but probably is the least used tool to handicapping.
Horses are animals.
Members of the animal kingdom. If you, or a four legged friend of your's runs over a hard surface, lots of internal damage is done which takes a while to recover from. The bigger the animal, the more time it takes to recover.
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